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Water FractalTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.9% | +4.7 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 11.1% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.5% | -2.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 7.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.5% | +7.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.9% | +3.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.1% | +5.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.8% | -4.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.4% | -4.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.4% | -6.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.1 |
| Water Genbu | 3.2% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 59.1% | +6.8 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.7% | -3.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.6 |
| Fire Suited | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Tamer | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.3 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.5% | -5.6 |
| Water Allies | 1.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -1.9 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -3.9 |
| Wind Merlin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.8% | -5.1 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Frostsworn Paladin, Spalling Cleanse, Unstable Fractal.
No cards correlated with losing.
Show all 24 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frostsworn Paladin | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Novice Healer | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| The Looking Glass | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Stolen Chance | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Wand of Frost | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Hubris | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |